AI has been public enemy #1 for at least two years. As the first wave of enthusiasm wore off, people realized that the content that we as SEOs and publishers had spent years flooding the internet with was being used to make the richest even richer.
We cannot deny that the open web is evolving – AI bot traffic increased by 187% between January and December 2025while human trafficking increased by only 3.1%. The exchange of value for websites – especially those that have exchanged information and clicks – no longer exists as it once did. At least, not in such a lasting way.
Although this has been accelerated by the arrival of large language models – response engines that have restructured the web without participating in click-based value exchange – public habits have been changing for some time. Generally not positive for publishers.
The erosion of direct relationships
Similar data across 15 publishers and four platforms shows that direct traffic declined in all segments over three years:
- Popular publishers: -33.1%
- Premium publishers: -23.4%
- Public service publisher(s): -19.9%
- The Platform segment also recorded a drop in direct traffic (-13.3%), but offset by growth in other channels.
But segment averages don’t tell the whole story. The public under 35 is declining around a third faster than that of over 35s. The exact cohort from which tomorrow’s paying subscribers (hopefully) come.
Birmingham Mail saw a 54.6% reduction in direct traffic during this period. The Mirror follows closely at 52.9%. Conversely, The Telegraph only lost 8.9%. Potentially some Premium resilience exposed.
The NYT has seen growth in the UK market, albeit from a small user base, as has GB News – a relatively new proposition in 2023 to my knowledge.
YouTube’s 17.8% loss of direct traffic over the same period drags the platform segment down. One could say that this is symptomatic of a more direct behavior towards the application. I suppose you could make the same argument for publishers.
All other platforms gained a direct user base during this period. It should be noted, however, that Substack and TikTok had a much smaller starting point:
- Tik Tok: +56.7%
- Sub-stack: +248.8%
- Reddit: +4.7%
The platforms’ total traffic has held up so effectively, thanks in large part to The extraordinary rise of Reddit in organic search – up 114% over the same period. Which I’m sure won’t surprise any of you.
This behavior is reflected in brand search
You might also not be surprised to learn that typical audience loss isn’t limited to direct traffic. Brand searches – arguably the second or third best indicator of user resonance (along with online mentions) – have seen an equally sharp decline.
Since the Daily Mail’s heyday in 2013, the story has been quite consistent and destructive. Publisher offers seem to have become less attractive.
Over the same three windows of Similarweb data, branded search dropped approximately 25-56% for titles with measurable signal.
The Daily Mirror found a 56% reduction in brand searches. The Sun 54%. The Times and The Independent saw the smallest decline, but they had already hit the ground before this window arrived.
So what?
Publishers do not compete with other publishers. Well, they are, but not exclusively. As the Internet and the world evolve, publisher offerings must follow suit. Brand search fell faster than direct traffic in the same window – two independent measures of the same declining habit, pointing in the same direction. Down.
Publishers must therefore become more of a destination and attract a younger audience again.
Develop named voices and work with creators. Platforms demonstrate greater resilience because they exploit the individual. Public, especially younger people, trust the individual rather than the brand. Publishers can adopt each of these within their own brand architecture, building individual voices, as Wired doesand diversifying the product and revenue base.
Create addictive products. A decade of decline in direct traffic and brands can be stopped, but not by repeating what worked before. Audio and videogames, puzzles and other ROI formats create the engagement that turns into lifetime value. A user who I love the brand has a total CLV well over 50 times greater than that of an occasional or occasional reader, according to Ringier.
Invest in product architecturenot just editorial. Closing the engagement gap with platforms requires recommendation systems, personalization engines, and newsletter and notification infrastructure – the standards that young audiences now expect.
All of this is designed to build resilience in the form of moats. Use these products and systems to collect first-party data. Social references have fallen sharplyand Google becomes more of a walled garden, resolve queries on its own platform. Saved and connected audiences are the protection: their business value increases, and without first-party data, quality personalization is very difficult.
There you have it, short and sweet. Until next time!
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